Writing

Leave-Future-Out Beyond Time Series

Temporal cross-validation for hierarchical mechanistic survival models

LFO cross-validation was built for univariate time series. Here I work out what it takes to bring it into hierarchical joint longitudinal–survival models: staggered enrolment, dual observation clocks, ELPD decomposition, and a patient-level bootstrap for standard errors.

The Funder’s Meta-Problem

Sequential decision-making under uncertainty for Effective Altruism funders

A simulation study of planning policies for an EA funder maximising welfare through intervention selection. Naive policies — single-study belief updating — perform substantially worse than probabilistic policies that optimise re-evaluation timing, with the gap widening in sequential settings.

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