Economist · Applied Bayesian Statistician
Karim Naguib
I sit at the intersection of causal inference, Bayesian hierarchical modeling, and agentic tooling — a combination that’s rare in pharma. Right now that means patient-level digital twins of oncology tumor dynamics at AstraZeneca: joint longitudinal-survival models that borrow across trials to support Phase 3 initiation decisions. Before that: field experiments in Kenya and South Asia, real-estate market design, and RL for intervention policy.
Currently
Open to senior/staff roles applying Bayesian methods and causal inference in health, pharma, or high-stakes decision contexts. Based in Silver Spring, MD — remote-first, flexible on hybrid.
How an economist ends up building digital twins: field experiments, causal inference, and the path to pharma.
Six technical projects: predicting Phase 3 outcomes from Phase 2 tumor dynamics, decomposing competing risks in survival data, and building agentic tooling for Bayesian modeling teams.
Peer-reviewed work on migration, social norms, and incentive design — where the causal-inference instincts were trained.
Methodological notes on Bayesian modeling, survival analysis, and the tools I work in.